Can Donald Trump Win the 2nd Half of the 2016 Election Marathon? It Depends
It's a big surprise for a lot of people that Donald Trump could be the GOP's presumptive nominee of the 2016 Election. While many are still puzzled how he could reach this point, it is more meaningful to look toward the future now: Can he win the 2nd half of the 2016 Election Marathon in November? Well, it all depends.
First of all, we need to realize that, although Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton are competing at the surface, it is more a competition of two campaign teams behind these two players. Inside each of the teams, the most critical role, in my opinion, will be the Chief Strategist. A successful Chief Strategist will first of all, of course, has a great strategic mind, having a deep understanding of the whole context and possessing a great deal of knowledge how to play the election game. More important, this person will also need to be able to win the total trust from the nominee and so he/she can help the nominee to grow and evolve. This is critically important to Donald Trump because he is a novice politician.
Second, Donald Trump needs to be able to transform himself to a real great politician. Besides help from his Chief Strategist and other advisors, it's important for Donald Trump to realize the need himself. Like something the Bible says, God helps ones who help themselves.
The third factor is the proportion of people who have strong resentment to the established political systems and the current government. Donald Trump tried to run for the White House before and those attempts were just a bit of entertainment show. A lot of people at the beginning, including those very experienced political analysts and strategists, assumed the same thing and then found they were totally wrong. Nate Silver, the founder of the FiveThirtyEight.com website who accurately predicted the outcomes of the 2012 Election, got wrong too when he tried to jump to conclusion about Donald Trump's chance of winning the GOP's nominee earlier this year. Media ponders and political analysts often pay too much focus on the candidates and too little attention to the big social context within which the election game plays. Yes, the social context usually is stable. However, many indicators, including the occupying the Wall Street movement, have suggest that more and more middle-class and below people feel struggling in daily lives and they become more and more unhappy about the government and established politicians. In Billionaire Wibur Ross' words, "I think the reason why the Trump phenomenon has become so important … is because middle class and lower middle class America has not really benefited by the last 10 to 15 years of economic activity and they're sick and tired of it and they want something different." To those with strong resentment to the current political system, Donald Trump vs. Hilary Clinton is a kind of possible improvement vs. impossible change. That is, things will certainly stay the same if Hilary be the next President while there is a certain degree of hope of getting better if Donald wins. So, the percentage of voters feeling strong resentment toward the established political system will be an unknown but very important factor determining the outcome of the 2016 Election.